A SWAG? (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess)
Mike.
Been waiting on that! :lol:
Let's see, How does it go? :hmmm:.................... :thinker:Crickets!
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How Many MMs are Left ???
- Thread starter Bluerauder
- Start date
Been waiting on that! :lol:
Let's see, How does it go? :hmmm:.................... :thinker:Crickets!
Bluerauder
CAMaraudin' in Virginia
Let's see, How does it go? :hmmm:.................... :thinker:Crickets!
Good one, Chris. I see you remember.
A SWAG? (Scientific Wild-Ass Guess)
Mike.
More of a W.A.G. (Wild Ass Guess), Mike. Minus the scientific part. Just a mathematical exercise.
I have always prefaced that these numbers were only estimates. No one knows the actual numbers and I doubt that anyone can collate the information from all the State DMVs and Insurance Companies as well as offshore information to get a better picture. My assumptions are shown below. Your assumptions may vary for whatever reason you choose …. But it will still just be an estimate. One thing for sure is that there are less than 11,052 on the road today than there were in 2003-2004. There are less today than yesterday. At some point, there will only be a handful owned by the DieHards and the Collectors. That’s just the way it goes as cars get older.
MARAUDER ATTRITION ASSUMPTIONS
The basic assumption uses a 20-year life cycle. This is typical in many military and commercial applications. At an average annual useage of 12,500 miles per year, that equates to a car with 250,000 miles. Few MMs will ever see that amount of miles even though we currently have a handful already beyond that point.
Using that 20-year starting point, I picked an initial 5% attrition. My model varies the attrition rate as the car ages by changing the rate at different points. At some point, yearly attrition begins to decline until it reaches a steady state of 2% at Year 29.
*** Years 1 to 5: 5% of remaining MMs (use of 5% based on 20 year Life Cycle)
*** Years 6 to 10: 10% of remaining MMs (2nd & 3rd generation owners, availability of parts, most out of warranty)
*** Years 11 to 15: 15% of remaining MMs (4th generation owners, unique parts discontinued, harder to repair, easily totaled out by insurance companies)
*** Years 16 to 28: Decreases 1% each year from 15% until it reaches steady state at 2% (most remaining cars are in the hands of collectors, in storage and rarely used).
*** Years 29 to XX: 2% attrition each year.
The above assumptions result in a 2014 total of 4,513 MMs remaining (40.8%). Works out to 3,044 – 2003 MMs and 1,469 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 3,320, Silver Birch – 617, DTR – 448, and DBP – 127).
ALTERNATE ASSUMPTIONS
Assuming a constant 5% attrition, the number of MMs remaining increases to 6,383 (57.8%). Works out to 4,458 – 2003 MMs and 1,924 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 4,775, Silver Birch – 834, DTR – 587, and DBP – 187).
I don't see the constant 5% as realistic; but it does put a mark on the wall as probably close to the upper end of reality. I tend to favor the graduated attrition since it recognizes age, parts availability, and the changing demographics of the drivers. Either way, we will never know for certain.
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Good one, Chris. I see you remember.
I see things and store them away for a later date........:beer:
MMcactusflower
New member
WOW...i knew our MMs were getting few and far between...i have only seen one black one here in the texas hill country in the nine years we have lived here...so i guess i best be keeping my DTR (23,500 miles) for a while longer.
and another MM story we have all heard...just last week as i drove The Major to the local grocery store...one good ol' boy told me that my ride was 'absolutely gorgeous' and ten minutes later, another person asked the oft asked question, "what kind of car is that, dude?'
yep...loved it
and another MM story we have all heard...just last week as i drove The Major to the local grocery store...one good ol' boy told me that my ride was 'absolutely gorgeous' and ten minutes later, another person asked the oft asked question, "what kind of car is that, dude?'
yep...loved it
kirk
Member
Good one, Chris. I see you remember.
More of a W.A.G. (Wild Ass Guess), Mike. Minus the scientific part. Just a mathematical exercise.
I have always prefaced that these numbers were only estimates. No one knows the actual numbers and I doubt that anyone can collate the information from all the State DMVs and Insurance Companies as well as offshore information to get a better picture. My assumptions are shown below. Your assumptions may vary for whatever reason you choose …. But it will still just be an estimate. One thing for sure is that there are less than 11,052 on the road today than there were in 2003-2004. There are less today than yesterday. At some point, there will only be a handful owned by the DieHards and the Collectors. That’s just the way it goes as cars get older.
MARAUDER ATTRITION ASSUMPTIONS
The basic assumption uses a 20-year life cycle. This is typical in many military and commercial applications. At an average annual useage of 12,500 miles per year, that equates to a car with 250,000 miles. Few MMs will ever see that amount of miles even though we currently have a handful already beyond that point.
Using that 20-year starting point, I picked an initial 5% attrition. My model varies the attrition rate as the car ages by changing the rate at different points. At some point, yearly attrition begins to decline until it reaches a steady state of 2% at Year 29.
*** Years 1 to 5: 5% of remaining MMs (use of 5% based on 20 year Life Cycle)
*** Years 6 to 10: 10% of remaining MMs (2nd & 3rd generation owners, availability of parts, most out of warranty)
*** Years 11 to 15: 15% of remaining MMs (4th generation owners, unique parts discontinued, harder to repair, easily totaled out by insurance companies)
*** Years 16 to 28: Decreases 1% each year from 15% until it reaches steady state at 2% (most remaining cars are in the hands of collectors, in storage and rarely used).
*** Years 29 to XX: 2% attrition each year.
The above assumptions result in a 2014 total of 4,513 MMs remaining (40.8%). Works out to 3,044 – 2003 MMs and 1,469 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 3,320, Silver Birch – 617, DTR – 448, and DBP – 127).
ALTERNATE ASSUMPTIONS
Assuming a constant 5% attrition, the number of MMs remaining increases to 6,383 (57.8%). Works out to 4,458 – 2003 MMs and 1,924 – 2004 MMs. (Black – 4,775, Silver Birch – 834, DTR – 587, and DBP – 187).
I don't see the constant 5% as realistic; but it does put a mark on the wall as probably close to the upper end of reality. I tend to favor the graduated attrition since it recognizes age, parts availability, and the changing demographics of the drivers. Either way, we will never know for certain.
I love to watch the conversation every time this chart comes up.
It's a great chart Charlie.
I would think that the attrition rate would actually start higher and work down over time. There are more cars on the road to get into accidents in the early years, driven by people who may not care about them, and as they get older and there are less of them a higher percentage are in the hands of people like us who appreciate them and take care of them better, causing the attrition rate to fall over time as a percentage of all cars.
My 2 cents.
I also think 20 years is a little short. I'm hoping to get 40 or 50 out of my 2003. Already have 32 years on the 1963.
vegasmarauder
DBP #102
I think the rarity works against saving the cars. As more and more parts go obsolete, the insurance companies total them and inversely they get more expensive to repair making it cost prohibative to repair them. A salvage title car has less value so if the repair cost totaled it, then the rebuilt price would not make it worth it to repair.
I saw this in the 70's with the Shelbys. Ford discontinued the parts short of the 10-year mark and Branda had not started making reproductions so there was a period where they were orphans. They sat in backyards, wrecked or with blown motors until the value went up enough to make them worth it. I bought a 68 GT350 for $1900 in 1981 with a missing motor. Kept it for 30 years until someone offered me as much as my house for it.
I see the same direction for Marauders except a lot more are going to the wrecker than under trees and in garages. And Marauders are a bit more complex to repair/keep running than the older cars were.
I love mine and want to keep it as long as I can.
I saw this in the 70's with the Shelbys. Ford discontinued the parts short of the 10-year mark and Branda had not started making reproductions so there was a period where they were orphans. They sat in backyards, wrecked or with blown motors until the value went up enough to make them worth it. I bought a 68 GT350 for $1900 in 1981 with a missing motor. Kept it for 30 years until someone offered me as much as my house for it.
I see the same direction for Marauders except a lot more are going to the wrecker than under trees and in garages. And Marauders are a bit more complex to repair/keep running than the older cars were.
I love mine and want to keep it as long as I can.
Bluerauder
CAMaraudin' in Virginia
Good feedback Kirk. However, don't confuse the attrition rate (%) with the attrition numbers. Even a constant rate results in less losses each year because of "stacking" percentages. This is why the curve flattens out over time. Theoretically, it will never reach zero. So you can be that 1 in 11,052.
Few cars will live past the 20-year timeframe (only about 10-20%). But there will still be some around for many years beyond that. At 40 years, I estimate about 500 left. At 50 years, about 400. Might be as many as 50-100 on the 100th anniversary .... probably in museums or collector's garages or under a cover in the back of Great Grandpa's outbuilding. So, you will have plenty opportunity for keeping yours.
Wouldn't your 1963 be at the 51 years mark rather than 32 ??
kirk
Member
I didn't buy it new, so while the age is 51, I've only owned it 32.
Mr. Man
GAME OVER, YOU LOSE!
MustangMarauder
LAYING WHEEL SINCE 1991
I do know one thing......there sure are A LOT of MM getting parted out here alone,not counting all the internet junk yard parts cars getting sc*****....kind of sad.
PuntyMario
Night Roamer
If those are the numbers for Us models only, then sweet jesus what about the Canadian numbers?
Bluerauder
CAMaraudin' in Virginia
lji372
Supporting Member
Mike D Mechanic
New member
WOW reading about how many might be left just made me go out and pet mine! I have had internal issues for a while now as to put her protected in a safe place until she is as rare as Betty that is in garage at work,( estimated less than 60 left) which is no fun but I like history. Or to drive the wheels off of her which is a major blast ! Put another 8 hours on Mary Jane yesterday. :bigcry:
Motorhead350
New member
I can confirm one in my position.
OK!!! I've still got mine after 15 yrs. and still goin strong!!! Oh, and finally have an appointment at my local FLM dealer for the LCM recall. you could just see the disappointment from not being able to rape me on Labor and parts!! hahaha..... Oh and 147K on'er. New headlights(RockAuto$60 apiece), New window motor, repaired EATC, repair seat motors,(loose wires), Intermittent wiper malfunction,(drilled 1/8th" hole in lowest point), El cheapo Shorty Headers( O they Fugley now!) Cats removed, runnin on factory turbo flo's. Oh,! and 694 of 7093 BlkW/Blk interior And if anyone is interested Motorhead350/Dominic still has his and is alive and doing well!!! hahaha
RubberCtyRauder
Weißbirke Plünderer
Read this before taking car to dealer to hack your lcm wiring.
https://www.mercurymarauder.net/forums/showthread.php?104602-15S39-LCM-Bypass-Recall-Documented
burt ragio
Junior Member
One cup of coffee no cream or sugar and two single malt scotch.