Weather...

IwantmyMMnow!

IwantmyMMnow!

New member
How did the area where MV9 is going to be fare during the rains from Irene?

I know I'm not the only meatier...metior...weather person on MM.net, but figured I'd go ahead and broach the subject of weather.

For those that don't know, I'm a weather forecaster in the Air Force...have been for 20 years (well, the last 16; spent the first 3.5 years observing then went to school for 7 months to learn forecasting) and will be retiring at the end of this year.

I have access to long-range model data and was dorking around earlier today to see if I could get a glimpse of what to expect for MV9. Just a few things to point out:

--Current long-range data only goes out until 12 Oct
--Accuracy this early in the game is probably 25%

What I saw wasn't pretty. Strong low pressure system over southern New England the morning of the 12th with VERY cold air coming in behind from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast. How cold? 3-6 inches of snow across most of PA by 8am and another 3-6 inches likely during the day. Wish I was just joking, but I'm not.

But again, accuracy is very low this early and I'm sure the models will change many, many times between now and 2 weeks from now. I will do my best to post an updated forecast by the end of this week; by then, models will go out far enough to encompass the entire event (thru the 16th).

Just don't shoot the messenger...:lol:
 
WTH?!?!!! :( Well when we were there the same time last year, the weather was PERFECT! Crisp air, highs in the low 60s, not a cloud in the sky the 3 days we were there and sunny, sunny!

I'll be praying for the same this year. Besides I think it's too early to tell and, no offense, I don't trust you weather people. :rolleyes:..... :D
 
Will have to wait a few days...

fastblackmerc said:
What's it look like for Wilmington, N.C. the same weekend?
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The models I looked at only go to the 12th (Wed). Models depict breezy and cool in Wilmington that day, but sunny skies with temps in the 55-60F range for a high, which is about 20 degrees colder than normal.
 
Maybe his has been converted to a 4X4 :D

03mercury1.jpg
 
I HOPE you are wrong. The last time I went to a meet in Gettysburg, I ran into snow in the higher elevations. NOT GOOD!!
 
Earliest recorded snow in PA was October 19th 1940 and that was less then a inch. You saying we are going for the record during MV9 with up to 6" of snow???? Also the average high temp is 64* and the average low is 44* which isn't quite cold enough for snow fall.

I do not believe ANY weather forecast so I'm calling :bs:
 
Meh, bring it on.

2 DR's (if I can find some in time) and jack/tools/cleaning products in trunk, 4 snow tires in back seat, suitcase and camera on front seat.

Maybe just bring a damn trailer?

Sent from my Ally using Tapatalk
 
1 of 328 is an all weather fighter-bomber, I don't care if it's snowing tornados of hurricanes made out of fire, I'm marauding the greater Hershey PA area at the appointed times and assigned places!!!!
 
CBT said:
1 of 328 is an all weather fighter-bomber, I don't care if it's snowing tornados of hurricanes made out of fire, I'm marauding the greater Hershey PA area at the appointed times and assigned places!!!!
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Here!! Here!! My DTR doesn't stop for anything............. Well unless there is a male hooker nearby!!


---
- Sent from my iPhone
Eaton Swap = Wreeeeeeeeeedom!!
 
CBT I had to read your post twice. I thought it said your were traceling the Hershey Highway again. I don't know how to drive in snow so lets skip the snow. I do know how to drive in high water.
 
Plus 1

CBT said:
1 of 328 is an all weather fighter-bomber, I don't care if it's snowing tornados of hurricanes made out of fire, I'm marauding the greater Hershey PA area at the appointed times and assigned places!!!!
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Your my hero!
 
This is why we call you guys "Weather Guessers" in the Navy. :D

IwantmyMMnow! said:
But again, accuracy is very low this early and I'm sure the models will change many, many times between now and 2 weeks from now. I will do my best to post an updated forecast by the end of this week; by then, models will go out far enough to encompass the entire event (thru the 16th).

Just don't shoot the messenger...:lol:
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Haven't you all learned by now--don't even SPEAK of the weather for our weekend away until about.................October 10th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stop your bad selves---------ALL of YOU:D:D:D
 
I'm just sayin'....

Blackened300a said:
Earliest recorded snow in PA was October 19th 1940 and that was less then a inch. You saying we are going for the record during MV9 with up to 6" of snow???? Also the average high temp is 64* and the average low is 44* which isn't quite cold enough for snow fall.

I do not believe ANY weather forecast so I'm calling :bs:
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Just two years ago, snow fell across the northern half of PA...Oct 15th-16th. Some areas got as much as 6-8 inches.

Link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2009/10_16/index.php

Average temperatures are just that...averages. It has been as hot as 88 and as cold as 27 during the period of 12-16 Oct.

jabird56 said:
This is why we call you guys "Weather Guessers" in the Navy. :D
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I agree...it is pretty much guessing, but I can say it's more of an 'educated guess' now than it was 20 years ago...;)

I looked again at the long range model data a little earlier, and it has changed quite a bit already...like I said before, the models will change a dozen times in the next two weeks. It will be interesting to see what the weather is like during MV9 compared to what the models are showing right now...will give me a very good idea how accurate the model data is.
 
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